Macro Horizons: Global Stock Investors Keep Buying; Policy Leaves Them No Choice
| Email-ID | 23743 |
|---|---|
| Date | 2015-04-23 03:09:45 UTC |
| From | d.vincenzetti@hackingteam.com |
| To | flist@hackingteam.it |
Please find Wednesday’s WSJ/Macro Horizon column.
There would be a LOT to say about the latest developments in the Yemen crisis — both American and Iranian warships are close-by in the region and a military confrontation might be likely.
As usual, emphasis is mine.
FYI,David
THE WALL STREET JOURNALMacro HorizonsMacro Horizons: Global Stock Investors Keep Buying; Policy Leaves Them No Choice
- By
- Michael J. Casey
- and
- Alen Mattich
WRAP: Stock investors have been a little jittery in the U.S. – where the strong dollar has monkeyed with first-quarter earnings – but elsewhere they can’t help buying, not when the central banks and governments of the world are throwing money at them. Japan’s Nikkei got through 28,000 for the first time in 15 years and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has fully recovered from a biggish fall on Monday. Both markets are helped by easy monetary policy – the Bank of Japan’s heavy quantitative easing and new loosening measures from the People’s Bank of China – as well by explicit stock-buying actions from quasi-government agents such as Japan’s public pension funds. Similar gains are being seen in Europe, of course, where Greece’s virtual bankruptcy has done near nothing to upset the buying mood. With the Federal Reserve reluctant to increase rates while the dollar is so strong and the Bank of England pulling back from what had been a clear plan to tighten policy, equity investors are been driven into stocks in droves. (MC)
JAPAN: The Nikkei surged above 20,000, led by buying in small-cap stocks, to reach a new 15-year high.
It’s (nearly) all about the support from monetary policy and public pension fund buying, with the Bank of Japan’s relentless quantitative easing and a change in policy at public pension funds to include equities in their portfolios steering trillions of yen into the stock market. To be sure, there are some other micro factors behind the Nikkei’s 15% gain this year: governance changes to encourage firms to pay dividends and boost shareholder value are making stocks more attractive, as are some of the earnings improvements enjoyed by local consumer goods producers as a result of the weaker yen, which makes foreign, imported goods more expensive. But policy is clearly helping, as it is elsewhere in Asia. The Hang Seng index, which by the end of Wednesday had fully recovered from a battering on Monday to again test the 28,000 level and show an 18% on the year, is clearly being driven by easier policy in China, following a reserve ratio requirement cut there. (MC)
U.K.: Bank of England monetary policy committee voted unanimously in April to keep rates unchanged according to minutes.
The BOE’s policy setters opted for no change in the April meeting. But there was a subtle shift in their thinking – all of them now expect the next rate move to be up, while for two the decision was finely balanced about whether to call for an immediate increase. That doesn’t mean rates are going up anytime soon. A softer tone to the global economy and some signs the U.K. is cooling, alongside subdued inflation and no indication of wage pressures suggest the BOE can hold off tightening policy for some time yet. (AM)
ITALY: February industrial orders rose 0.8% on the month and were up 2.0% on the year.
Italian industrial orders rebounded slightly from a sharp 3.7% monthly decline in January. Much of this was down to local strength, domestic orders rose 1.2% on the month against a 0.4% increase in foreign orders. The rebound in orders suggests healthier upturn in Italy’s economy, though there are global headwinds slowing the recovery. (AM)
YEMEN: A Saudi-led coalition said it was ending its month-long military operations against Yemeni rebels.
Saudi Arabia and its regional partners decided to end their air campaign against Yemen’s Iran-backed rebels with a view to letting diplomacy take over. That’s not to say a Yemeni solution is likely to be at hand. It’s the latest in a long running series of religion-based regional proxy wars between Saudi and Iran. But the latest move wind down the risks of a wider conflagration. For now. (AM)
INDONESIA: President Joko Widodo called for a new global economic order. Speaking at the Asian-African Summit in Jakarta before an audience that included the leaders of China and Japan, Mr. Widodo said the world could no longer be adequately served by the three international financial institutions – the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.
Mr. Widodo’s comments went further than mere support for the China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – which has attracted support around the world but pushback from Washington. It was a challenge to U.S. hegemony in general, as well as an airing of concerns that a dollar-centric world has become a liability for developing nations. This comes amid giant money flows set forth by quantitative easing policies unleashed by the world’s biggest central banks and fears that when the Fed raises rates, those dollar-based flows could quickly reverse and destabilize emerging markets.
U.S.: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said the strength of the dollar could lead the Fed to postpone its rate increase intentions.
Mr. Rosengren is one of the more dovish Fed officials and not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year. Nonetheless, his remarks, made in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, do suggest that the dollar has become a preoccupation for the Fed. This comes as it prepares for another meeting next week and is tries to tease out the causes of last quarter’s soft economic data over which it has no control, such as a cold winter, from those over which it has direct influence, such as the strong dollar. (MC)
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